Estonian ambition to leverage AI: 50% GDP increase by 2035

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal launched the eesti.AI program, which aims to increase Estonia’s GDP by 25% by 2030 and by 50% by 2035.

The logic behind the idea is simple: Estonia wants to leverage artificial intelligence - and its experience in digital transformation - to “enable fewer people to accomplish more sophisticated, higher-value work” and to develop powerful AI applications and capabilities that “other countries cannot”, delivering tangible benefits to the Estonian economy.

Perfect timing for European AI applications

A big plus: Estonia has a deep tradition of public-private partnerships across e-government services, ICT exports, and pilot projects such as Leap AI - where the government cooperates with major AI players to upskill 20,000 pupils and 3000 teachers across the country in a few years.

Now that the EU is looking for ways to adopt and apply AI across both the private and public sectors (and is simultaneously looking for European AI applications) Estonia has a good chance of putting its experience to practical use, creating solutions that can be used not only in Estonia, but also exported elsewhere. A win-win for the Estonian government and businesses, and, by extension, the economy.

Ambitious KPIs = no fear culture in the public sector 

Unlike many strategies built around collective intelligence and numerous political nods to different sectors, the Estonian goals seem simple, business-friendly, and the key performance indicators (KPIs) are clear, so the initiatives’ success can later be measured against real economic performance data.

The KPIs are also far from modest, signalling that Estonia’s decision-making culture is open enough and tolerates risk. In many other European countries, the public sector is held back by fear of mistakes and failure, so the KPIs in strategic documents tend to be modest and easily achievable.

Focused approach  = smart use of limited resources

Much like Denmark, which focuses on a few large-scale projects to apply AI (and, consequentially, leads AI adoption among businesses in Europe), Estonia also wants to keep its focus sharp - aiming for initiatives at scale, not small projects that soak up resources, keep different sectors and interest groups happy, but are rarely large enough to generate significant results.

Estonian entrepreneur Sten Tamkivi of Skaala puts it bluntly:

“The goal is to focus on fewer but significant, high-impact projects so that something important can be accomplished within the next 1.5 years”.